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休斯顿预计将增加约6万个就业岗位,但经济衰退的不确定性可能会影响这一增长

Published Dec 08, 2022 by A.J. Mistretta

White Oak Bayou Trail

HOUSTON (Dec. 8, 2022) -大休斯顿合作伙伴关系预测休斯顿地区将在未来一年看到显著的就业增长, but just how much growth and in what sectors is heavily dependent on whether the U.S. slips into a recession in 2023 and the subsequent depth and longevity of that downturn. 

休斯顿的经济与国民经济的联系比最近记忆中的任何时候都更直接,几乎肯定会跟随美国的步伐.S. into any recession. As consensus mounts among economists that a U.S. 经济衰退是不可避免的,这在很大程度上要感谢为减缓通货膨胀而提高的利率,现在的问题是经济衰退将会是什么样子,以及它将如何影响特定的行业. 

The Houston Region Economic Outlook 该出版物于12月8日与伙伴关系的同名活动同时发布. In the Partnership’s baseline forecast, Houston experiences a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2023, with growth resuming in the third quarter. That would likely mean a net gain of approximately 60,800 jobs—a bit shy of the region’s long-term average of 65,000 to 70,000 new jobs annually, but still significant growth. If Houston manages to avoid a recession entirely, the Partnership’s “best-case” scenario, the region could see as many as 79,200 new jobs in 2023. 然而,如果衰退持续下去,增长可能仅限于增加3.04万个就业岗位. 

Even in the worst-case scenario, 休斯顿的核心产业有很好的缓冲来应对经济低迷,不会出现大规模失业, according to the forecast. Regardless of the scenario, growth will be strongest in the region’s construction, energy, government, health care, professional services, and restaurant sectors.

Partnership首席经济学家帕特里克•扬科夫斯基(Patrick Jankowski)认为,出现短期浅程度衰退(基线)的可能性为50%, a near-miss (best-case scenario) at 30%, and the likelihood of a deep, protracted recession at 20%.

“While business leaders are anticipating a recession, they aren’t letting it derail their plans,” Jankowski said. In a recent CEO survey, The Conference Board found that 98% of respondents expect a recession in 12-18 months, 但86%的公司计划维持或增加资本预算,44%的公司计划在经济低迷时期继续招聘. “这告诉Hga010皇冠软件下载,企业已经为即将到来的事情做好了准备,但更重要的是要放眼未来.” 

According to the Texas Workforce Commission, Houston added an incredible 144,000 new jobs through October of this year. Partnership总裁兼首席执行长哈维(Bob Harvey)说,他对该地区的经济发展势头感到满意. “As we look ahead to 2023 and what the future has in store, I’m incredibly optimistic about Houston’s prospects, despite a possible recession. Hga010皇冠软件下载面临着挑战——从确保Hga010皇冠软件下载皇冠HGA010官方下载转型方面处于领先地位,到有效地争夺顶尖人才——但每次休斯顿都被低估了, we’ve come out on top. I believe that will be the case once again.” 

就业预测的各行业细分和影响每个行业的因素可在 full report.

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Greater Houston Partnership
The Greater Houston Partnership works to make Houston one of the best places to live, work and build a business. As the economic development organization for the region, 该伙伴关系通过将致力于该地区长期成功的商业和具有公民意识的领导人聚集在一起,促进了12个县的增长. 代表950个成员组织和大约五分之一的地区劳动力, the Partnership is the place companies come together to make an impact. Learn more at Houston.org.

Contact: 
A.J. Mistretta
amistretta@paginealvetriolo.net 
504-450-3516
 

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